Reorganization of the industry structure 2012 semiconductor lighting industry competition model changes

2011 was a year of ups and downs in the development of the semiconductor lighting industry. The good development momentum at the end of 2010 did not continue as expected in the industry. Under multiple pressures, China's semiconductor lighting industry has entered a stage of reform of the industry structure and the transformation of the competitive model. On the whole, despite the fact that many companies had unsatisfactory business conditions in 2011, some companies even closed down, but it is undeniable that China's semiconductor lighting industry is further consolidated, and China is still the fastest growing region in the global semiconductor lighting industry.

In 2011, the scale of China's semiconductor lighting industry reached 156 billion yuan, an increase of 30% from 120 billion yuan in 2010. The scale of upstream epitaxial chips, midstream packaging, and downstream applications was 6.5 billion yuan, 28.5 billion yuan, and 121 billion yuan respectively, with a slight slowdown in growth. In 2012, the analysis of the industry, the industry will continue to adjust the situation, corporate opportunities and challenges coexist.

In 2011, the semiconductor lighting industry showed several major features:

The penetration rate of LED lighting market is still low, and the indoor lighting market starts. China's lighting applications have accelerated significantly, and its application effects have been gradually recognized, but its penetration rate in the lighting market is still low. The domestic LED lighting application market has not yet become the dominant force in the development of the industry, forming a situation of “with space and no market”. At present, the domestic semiconductor lighting industry, especially the downstream application industry, is still too dependent on the international market. The domestic lighting application hotspot is changing from outdoor lighting to indoor lighting, especially in commercial, industrial, and subway applications. The demonstration effects of numerous application projects have been recognized. Although the industry's unanimously expected LED product subsidy policy has not yet been introduced, indoor lighting applications are still in its infancy, but its market application prospects have been recognized.

Industrial investment has gradually become more rational, and the power of capital to change the industrial structure has become stronger. Driven by the investment policies of local governments in previous years, the number of upstream outbound equipment increased rapidly in 2011. However, due to technical, talent, and market demand constraints, the production capacity is not satisfactory, and product performance has not achieved a substantial breakthrough. Technology and talent are still The biggest obstacle to upstream epitaxial chips. In 2011, with the overall situation of the industry being poor, the blindness and repetitive investment momentum in various regions was curbed. Reasonable reflections on industrial development made industrial investment more cautious. For example, in the first half of last year, due to the release of production capacity, the price of the sapphire substrate project quickly fell to around US$10, and companies stopped building or abandoned their investment, and began to think rationally about investment direction. The influence of capital on the development of the industry has gradually deepened. Industry competition is not only a competition of technology, products and markets, capital will change the industrial structure to a great extent. The expansion of financing channels through public offerings and transactions in the securities market has occupied a proactive position in increasingly fierce competition in the industry and has become the pursuit of the further development of many enterprises.

International giants accelerate the pace of domestic deployment, and industrial integration has taken off. The potential scale of China's LED lighting market has attracted the attention of international LED companies, and its lighting application process has also brought more and more significant impact on the development of the entire semiconductor lighting industry. Because of the dual purposes of exploiting the domestic market and using domestic manufacturing advantages, international companies are stepping up the pace of domestic industrial deployment and creating changes for the domestic industrial competition landscape.

The turbulent international industrial environment and the intensified competition in the industry have increased the pressure on corporate investment and profitability. The domestic semiconductor lighting industry has begun to accelerate its differentiation and industrial integration has begun to emerge. Enterprises with capital, scale, technology, brand, and market channels have become the main players in industrial integration, and the distribution pattern of domestic semiconductor lighting companies is gradually improving.

Opportunities and challenges coexist in 2012

In 2012, under the multiple pressures of large-scale release of domestic production capacity, slowing down of global market demand, and unclear government subsidy policy, China's LED industry will inevitably continue to restructure its industry and change its competitive model.

First of all, the upstream production capacity will be gradually released in 2012, the price pressure of epitaxial chips will continue, and the localization rate will steadily increase. The intensification of competition at home and abroad will affect the price of high-power chips.

In 2011, the total number of domestic MOCVD reached 720. According to the current equipment introduction plan after adjustment by various companies, it is expected that the installed capacity of MOCVD will be maintained at around 300 units in 2012. In 2011, domestic enterprise chip revenue increased by 30% to 6.5 billion yuan, but it was far below the 106% growth rate of MOCVD equipment. This also reflected that domestic chip production capacity has not been fully realized and the price pressure of epitaxial chips will continue in 2012. .

In 2011, domestic GaN chip production capacity utilization was less than 50%, but the localization rate reached over 70%. At the same time, domestic chips have achieved breakthroughs in lighting applications through the integration of small chips; the market share of high-power lighting chips is still relatively low, but with the R&D, innovation and product quality enhancement, the overall trend is that domestic chip occupancy has increased slightly.

Although the LED market slowed down at the end of 2011, there were still upstream projects from Japan and Taiwan to enter the Chinese mainland. This also led to the intensification of competition in the domestic LED epitaxial chip field in 2012, and in the situation of continuous turmoil in the international macroeconomic situation, Domestic upstream industry investment will be cautious.

Secondly, in the packaging field in 2012, high-quality companies will integrate more industry resources, and the product structure will be concentrated on high-brightness LED and SMD LED (surface-mount devices). The overall market will maintain an incremental profit reduction trend. Upstream and downstream cooperation and integration will become package companies. Breakthrough new model.

In 2011, the overall size of China's LED packaging industry reached 28.5 billion yuan, an increase of 14% from 25 billion yuan in 2010, and the output increased from 133.5 billion in 2010 to 182 billion, an increase of 36%. In 2012, domestic packaging production will still maintain an increase of more than 30%, but as the profit margin is squeezed by upstream and downstream costs and demand, the overall output growth will not exceed 20%.

From the product structure point of view, high brightness LED output value reached 26.5 billion yuan, accounting for more than 90% of the total sales of LED packaging; SMDLED packaging growth is most obvious, has become the mainstream LED packaging products. In 2012, the proportion of SMD and high-brightness LEDs will continue to increase.

As an intermediate part of the industrial chain, LED packaging companies often need to withstand competitive pressures from both vertical and horizontal directions. Although the capital intervention in 2011 increased the competition chips of some LED packaging companies, the integration breakthrough is still on the shoulders of packaging companies. A heavy burden. According to the author, at present, some packaging companies have begun cooperation with the domestic traditional lighting manufacturers. The model of joint investment and cooperation in building factories may become a new attempt on this road to breaking through.

Finally, LED applications will continue to grow rapidly in 2012, lighting, landscape, and backlighting will continue to drive the growth of the troika. LED lighting application hotspots further shift from outdoor lighting to indoor lighting. International market demand and domestic policy guidance will become the key factors determining the growth rate of LED lighting. There are many variables in the competitive landscape of LED lighting applications. Enterprises with capital, scale, technology, brand, and market channel advantages will become the main players in industrial integration.

In 2011, the overall scale of LED applications in China reached 121 billion yuan, and the overall growth rate reached 34%, which is the fastest growing link in the semiconductor lighting industry chain. Among them, the growth of lighting applications is very obvious, the overall share has accounted for 25% of the entire application, becoming the largest market share of applications, backlight, landscape and other applications also maintained a rapid growth.

According to statistics from the pilot cities of “Ten Cities and Ten Thousand People”, currently there are more than 2,000 demonstrative projects implemented in 37 pilot cities, with over 4.2 million LED lamps and more than 400 million kWh of electricity. In 2012, LED outdoor lighting will gradually realize the transition from government-led to market-led transition. Given the exemplary role of “Ten Cities and Ten Thousand People”, many cities in China are currently increasing the number of LED street lights (including tunnel lights) to be replaced, plus the The newly installed capacity of 2 million baht per year in China provides outdoor lighting companies with a broader market space and expansion opportunities.

In 2011, despite the industry's unanimously anticipated subsidy policy for LED products, the application prospects of the LED indoor lighting market have been recognized. In 2012, the full introduction of LED subsidy policy is only a matter of time. It is reported that during the 2012 Shanghai International New Light Source New Energy Lighting Exhibition and Forum held on April 25-27 this year, relevant information on the subsidy policy will be released. According to reports, the forum will use the theme of "low-carbon and innovation, change the world of light" as the theme, invite domestic and foreign top experts to present speeches, create opportunities for enterprises to release and exchange products and technologies, and build a platform for mutual communication among people in the industry.

In short, in 2012, China's semiconductor lighting industry will continue to adjust its industry structure. For enterprises, it is a year that we will change our competitive model and actively respond to opportunities and challenges.

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